PODCAST: DEFENSE MINISTER GALLANT FIRED: HERE’S ONE OF THE PRIMARY REASONS!

In this episode, MirYam Institute In-House Analyst, Yaakov Lappin, is joined by Col. (res.) David Hacham, former Arab Affairs Advisor to multiple Israeli Defense Ministers, to discuss the future of the Gaza Strip. 

He asserts that only ongoing Israeli security control coupled with a temporary Israeli military administration can ensure that Hamas is uprooted.

They then explored why this proposal faces such fierce opposition from some voices in Israel, including from recently dismissed Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant.

Enjoy and be sure to subscribe to the show!

Photo Credit: cropped from U.S. Embassy Jerusalem https://flickr.com/photos/46886434@N04/53935271091

POLICY MEMO: ISRAEL MUST DITCH THE POLICY OF DETERRENCE

The need for a fundamental shift in Israeli national security strategy has become increasingly clear following the devastating mass murder attack launched by Hamas on southern Israel on October 7.

The traditional reliance on deterrence, a cornerstone of Israel’s security doctrine, has proven to be an entirely irrelevant concept against the unique threats posed by jihadist organizations.

While defense officials habitually would describe Israeli deterrence in the eyes of its adversaries as a ‘slippery’ and unstable ‘thing’ to measure, a closer examination reveals that it did not exist in the first place vis-à-vis Hamas, or Hezbollah. While these terror armies are certainly capable of calculating their interests and choosing timings that suit their ideological objectives, at no point did they exhibit actual deterrence – a wish to avoid conflict with Israel based on the conclusion that this is not in their interest.

This necessitates a strategic pivot towards a relentless focus on degrading enemy capabilities, and preventing the formation of jihadist armies on Israel’s borders, rather than engaging in fruitless and often unfounded efforts to get into the minds of adversaries whose cultural, religious, and military mindsets and actions are entirely alien to Western decision-making.

As such, one of the key policy lessons going forward needs to be the shift away from the doomed attempt to decipher the intentions of Middle Eastern terror armies, and towards placing the focus on continually degrading their capabilities, to the point where they are no longer organized hierarchical armies in control of their own territory and able to build up force with impunity.

The concept of deterrence, deeply ingrained in Israel’s defense strategy, is predicated on the belief that potential adversaries can be dissuaded from attacking by the threat of overwhelming retaliation, in a manner that would make the cost far outweigh the benefit. However, since jihadist armies will invariably unleash their capabilities at a time that is opportunistically convenient for advancing their totalitarian goals, the concept of deterrence should be discredited in dealing with these actors.

Traditionally, Israel’s classic ‘security triad’ concept, better known as the Ben Gurion doctrine, formulated in the 1950s, was based on the three pillars of deterrence; two of which were early intelligence warning of enemy intentions to attack, and decisive victory when wars broke out. The concept was based on Israel’s lack of strategic depth and relatively small standing army, as well as its rapid ability to call up reserves and take the fight into enemy territory.  Since lengthy conflicts drained Israel’s limited resources, the thinking went, deterrence was a valuable tool to build periods of calm in between rounds of warfare.

In fact, the concept proved relatively successful throughout the decades in which Israel faced state enemies with classical military threats, and Israel did indeed experience significant periods of relative calm and development between wars. But even in the 20th century, deterrence was far from a scientific concept. For example, soon after Israel’s most successful war, the 1967 Six Day War, Egypt, Jordan, and the PLO began a three-year bloody war of attrition against Israel.

The concept of deterrence was also predicated on the assumption that due to its size and resource limitations, Israel was in no position to permanently dismantle the military capabilities of its enemies, but rather, to use wars to land very painful blows, which would ‘top up’ deterrence until the next war.

However,  while the concept had mixed results in the 20th century, in the 21st century, the application of this thinking to jihadist enemy forces has proven disastrous. It allowed Hamas to build up a full-blown Iranian-backed army, whose October 7 mass murder attack will leave a multi-generational trauma on the Israeli national psyche, a setback to the Zionist ethos that Israel can never again afford to absorb.  

When dealing with religious jihadist adversaries, who are impervious to Western cost-benefit calculations, only persistent, sustained degradation of capabilities will lead to results. This approach involves continuous and proactive measures to weaken the operational and logistical capabilities of entities like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the puppet string holder that activates these proxies, the Iranian IRGC.

While non-state terror armies were never subject to deterrence, the question of whether the Islamic Republic of Iran can be deterred is more complex, and deserving of a separate analysis. Essentially, the Iranian regime and its main power brokers, the ayatollahs and the IRGC elite military officers, share the same fanatical jihadist ideology as their proxies, but are interested in handing off as much of the military conflict missions to proxies as they can at this time, until Iran goes nuclear. 

Closer to home, when seen through the lens of capability degradation rather than deterrence, it becomes clear that Israel’s war of self-defense against Hamas must end with the destruction of its status as a terrorist-army – a goal that Israel is past 70% of the way to reaching. This would be the first time in Israel’s military history that it would commit itself to permanently dismantling enemy capabilities, although smaller-scale precedents for this already exist, such as Israel’s dismantling of the PLO in Lebanon, and its five-year counter-terror offensive in the West Bank, which began in 2002.

This definition of victory does not rely on topping up deterrence, since the concept is irrelevant for Islamist decision-makers whose value systems and worldview stray far beyond what Western logic is capable of perceiving.

Israel’s focus must shift towards continuous military pressure and the strategic control of key areas to prevent enemy reorganization and resupply. This means Israel cannot, in the foreseeable future, give up control of the Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt – a major tunnel network smuggling zone. Israeli control over the Netzarim Corridor separating northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip is also critical to preventing a resurgence of enemy capabilities that would threaten the western Negev and beyond.

Furthermore, the civilian aspect of terror armies like Hamas cannot be ignored. The civilian social dimension of Hamas and Hezbollah act as supporting elements for the formation of terror armies, and in Gaza’s case, Israel must quickly define civilian alternatives to Hamas’s regime as a result.

Ultimately, only a relentless focus on degrading enemy capabilities, coupled with strategic military freedom of maneuver in areas bordering Israel, based on precise intelligence, and a commitment to developing civilian alternatives to replace Islamist social-political frameworks that sprout terror armies, will be essential to Israel’s continuity in the Middle East.

To address the regional challenges of the 21st century, we must replace the discredited concept of deterrence with a proactive, capabilities-focused strategy.

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

The time has come to topple Hamas but also think about what's next.

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

In the hours after Hamas’s massive and devastating onslaught against Israeli civilians in the south of the country, it has become clear that the die has been cast and that Israel can no longer accept Hamas’s regime in Gaza, Col. (res) David Hacham, a Miryam Institute senior associate and former Arab Affairs Advisor to several Israeli ministers of defense, assessed on Saturday.

“Israel will need to topple the Hamas regime – but it also must think about what happens on the day after,” said Hacham.

As Israel plans its response, the country’s defense establishment – which is fully cognizant of the cost in blood of such a war – will need to prepare for the possibility of a new military administration in Gaza, he cautioned.

The option of a partial campaign, striking Hamas and withdrawing, is unrealistic, said Hacham.

The wave of deadly cross-border attacks that began at 6:30 a.m. on Saturday demonstrated a severe strategic failure by Israel on a scale last seen in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 50 years ago, he added.

“One difference stands out – the lack of a prior alert in 1973 affected military maneuvers, whereas today, they have had a terrible effect on the civilian home front,” Hacham stated.

Israel’s failure has three key components, according to the former advisor. “At the intelligence level, Israel failed to detect the plan to attack despite its advanced units, eavesdropping, surveillance, and the capabilities of Military Intelligence and the Shin Bet,” he stated. “It took Hamas many months to prepare the attack, and its ability to organize and maintain the elements of surprise, while keeping the onslaught under wraps, is a major success for it,” he added. “Hamas contributed to the deception by pretending that it was in routine mode, asking to increase the number of Gazan workers allowed into Israel.”

The heartbreaking scenes of civilians caught up in the attack, crying in terror for their children, yet with no help available, was the visual, tragic expression of this failure.

Another aspect of the colossal Israeli failure is the fact that IDF soldiers and officers, along with unarmed civilians, were taken to Gaza as hostages.

The unbelievable scope of Israel’s killed and injured count is difficult to internalize, Hacham said.

“Israel’s Maginot Line collapsed in this attack like a house of cards. Despite the billions of shekels invested by Israel in building its underground and overground wall to block tunnels and infiltrations, Hamas found and exploited its weak spots. Hamas simply breached the 65-kilometer barrier with bulldozers, creating a highway for terrorists and other Gazans who cleverly exploited it,” said Hacham.

In the air, meanwhile, terrorists simply flew over the barrier with powered paragliders.

Internally, Hamas saw the internal divisions in Israeli society created by the dispute over the judicial overhaul. They viewed these developments as a major sign of Israeli weakness, and they exploited it to harm the country, Hacham said.

This was further nourished, he argued, by the way Hamas interpreted the refusal by pilots and IDF officers to volunteer for reserve duty, a move that projected weakness as far as it was concerned.

The head of Hamas’s military wing, Mohammed Deif, claimed the attack was sparked by the “desecration” of the Temple Mount in Jerusalem when thousands of Jews ascended the site during Succot, as well as violence by settlers in Judea and Samaria.

Hacham also noted that Hamas views the Palestinian Authority and its President, Mahmoud Abbas, as traitors.

As Israel plans its next steps, he proposed that Israel coordinate to a certain degree with Egypt, which is a major element that it can engage with, as well as Qatar, due to the funding it provides for Gaza.

Hacham noted that Abbas “made his usual comments during a meeting of his chiefs of staff, once again blaming Israel,” and added that “in reality, he has no say on what occurs in Gaza.”

According to the former defense official, Iran’s role must also be scrutinized closely. “Iran is a central inciter and supporter of Hamas, providing over one hundred million dollars annually to the organization and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It is reasonable to assume that Iran was in on the planned attack,” he stated.

Both Iran and Hamas have an interest in sabotaging the emerging trilateral Saudi – Israeli – United States agreement, which would blaze a trail for other Arab Muslim countries to follow suit and normalize relations with Israel, something that he said would create an enormous challenge to the Iranian-led regional axis.

As for Hamas itself, there is no doubt that its Gazan base is a central strategic asset for it and that it wants to continue to rule it, according to Hacham. “Yet Hamas miscalculated by going this far and not realizing that Israel will decide that it had enough and that it could well go for the option of toppling Hamas,” he said.

Moving forward, Hacham said the region will also need to be on alert for the potential threat of fundamentalist Islamist elements in Judea and Samaria – Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad – hitting senior Palestinian Authority operatives in targeted killings as part of the power struggle raging as Abbas’s rule draws to its end. “All sides are preparing for the start of the post-Abbas era,” Hacham said.

He noted that Deif warned the PA and Abbas to cease security cooperation with Israel during his speech.

Ultimately, the horrific events of October 8 mean that the spark has been lit and that it could set off an even bigger fire,” Hacham stated. “Hamas often speaks about the unity of arenas – Gaza, Judea and Samaria, east Jerusalem, southern Lebanon, and within Israel – with Iran orchestrating all of this from above. In Deif’s latest speech, he called for this unity to occur. This explains Israel’s warning to Hezbollah not to exploit this opportunity, but Israel still has to prepare for potential escalations in east Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, Judea and Samaria, and within its borders,” Hacham said.

“Israel’s interest is to isolate Gaza and avoid a multi-front arena while also preparing for exactly that scenario, at the same time as it seeks to start the painful process of moving forward after its colossal failure in Gaza,” Hacham concluded.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST!

SUBSCRIBE HERE!

What would be the security & strategic dimensions of an Israel-Saudi deal?

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

As the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia gets ever-closer, it is reasonable to assume that Israel’s defense establishment is conducting a thorough analysis of the potential security ramifications of such a maneuver.

Normalization would be a part of a trilateral agreement between Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel, and has the potential to redefine regional alignments.

In due time, the Israeli government will be equipped with recommendations from the defense establishment to help it navigate this strategic junction. The proposed normalization of relations is predicated on Saudi Arabia's requests to purchase American F-35 fighter jets, cutting-edge air defense systems, and a civilian nuclear reactor that is outfitted with a uranium enrichment fuel cycle.

Saudi Arabia wishes to receive American security commitments and to build long-term stability to enable it to become an economic powerhouse. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s vision is to turn the desert kingdom into a regional powerhouse that attracts business and investment and is not reliant on oil for its economic prosperity.

In assessing these requests from an Israeli perspective, it is impossible to examine them in isolation. Beyond the undeniable fact that they would improve Riyadh's capacity to defend itself against Iranian aggression, the Saudi ‘asks’ should also be seen in the wider context of the ongoing arms race between Israel and Iran. In recent years, Iran has disturbingly closed the gap on Israel’s military edge over it and its axis of proxies. Equipping Saudi Arabia with new capabilities that would be pointed at Tehran would, therefore, boost Israel’s strategic interests, while also carrying implicit risks.

But first, an examination of recent developments in Iran’s capability force build-up is in order.

The ban on Iran possessing ballistic missiles imposed by the United Nations will be lifted in October, and this could be a significant event for the world and the region, due to the blossoming cooperation between Iran and Russia.

Europe may soon see Iranian ballistic missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine. Given the robust nature of Iran's military industry, which is capable of the mass production of missiles, drones, and a wide variety of other types of weaponry, Russia has become dependent on Iranian firepower.

 As a result of Iran's assistance to Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, Moscow owes Iran a debt; as repayment, Iran may receive Russian Sukhoi jets. Russia could also help Iran with spy satellites and with the development of a more sophisticated missile arsenal.

Even if Iran occasionally cuts corners in terms of quality, the rapidity with which it manufactures its arms and then distributes them to regional proxies via air, land, and sea channels is cause for concern. Iran is expanding its influence all over the region, including Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, in addition to Yemen and the West Bank and Gaza.

Israel's goals in the region are clear: it wants to build an anti-Iran bloc of states that includes itself and other pragmatic Arab Sunni nations. In this context, the Abraham Accords, signed with the UAE and Bahrain in the year 2020, were a groundbreaking initiative. The normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arab world, however, holds the promise of being the real game-changer.

A shift of this magnitude is monumental, and it gives rise to optimism for a more positive and stable future. Amid these seismic shifts, Israel's overarching goal continues to be to maximize strategic gains while managing the risks associated with these gains.

To craft a new Middle East, certain gambles are required; as a result, the potential arming of Saudi Arabia needs to be viewed within the context of this grand strategy.

Iran continues to arm and fund its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, creating a clear joint Saudi-Israeli interest to contain these threats.

Israel's expanding influence in the region, on the other hand, has caused trepidation in Tehran. This may have been the trigger for the Iranian government to launch a charm offensive and to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia in March.

The Abraham Accords and their expansion should therefore be seen as Israel’s response to Iran’s strategy of encircling it with missile bases and well-armed enemies.

Throughout history, the attitude of many Arab nations toward normalization with Israel was cautious and their strategy was to wait for the Palestinian conflict to be resolved. This all began to change from 2020 onwards, when the acknowledgment of Israel's growing economic and military power, and its close ties with the United States—reshaped diplomatic priorities for Arab Sunni states.

These states identify Iran as the primary security threat to them.

All these processes have enabled Israel's integration into the Middle Eastern map in an unprecedented manner.

This shift is exemplified by the growing ties between the IDF and not only long-standing partners such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt, but also rumored military-strategic relations that are kept secret for the time being.

In addition, the transfer of the IDF from the US European Command to the Central Command, which is responsible for the Middle East, following the signing of the Abraham Accords, has greatly enhanced Israel’s integration in the region.

Even though it does not signify the formation of a Middle Eastern NATO, it does encourage information sharing, deterrence, and defense cooperation among nations. These kinds of collaborations have the potential to be formidable obstacles in the way of Iran's goals.

As such, normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is not merely another diplomatic effort. It is a possible harbinger of a new order in the Middle East, one in which Israel and Saudi Arabia, two Middle Eastern powerhouses, can combine their military, economic, and political power to push back against Iran in new ways.

These are the larger considerations that should guide the discussion on Saudi Arabia’s requests from the U.S. in exchange for normalization. 

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST!

SUBSCRIBE HERE!

MirYam Exclusive: Yoav Gallant's Delicate Balancing Act.

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has been in a very difficult position for several months, faced with the need to navigate between Israel's domestic judicial reform crisis and the interlinked crisis of unprecedented cracks in the cohesion of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Time and again, Gallant finds himself at a crossroads. Israel's national security and the cohesiveness of its defense establishment are in jeopardy as a result of the toxic interaction between politics, military preparedness, and the conflict between the government and the judicial branch.

For the time being, the IDF is equipped with the capabilities necessary to successfully carry out its activities. On the other hand, the ongoing pattern (at the time of this writing) of reservists not turning up for their scheduled active service, especially in essential units within the air force and intelligence, might have disastrous consequences if left unchecked.

If this pattern persists and becomes more widespread, it may compromise Israel's capacity to react to broader security challenges. There is no specific estimate of when this may happen, but the military establishment is on high alert in an effort to assuage the worries of the reserves and make the political echelons aware of the seriousness of the issue.

The fact that the IDF is now facing its greatest difficulty in maintaining unity since its founding in 1948 highlights the urgency of the problem, and this issue is eating up Gallant’s time, preventing him and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the General Staff from spending the time they’d like to pour over readiness for war scenarios and Iran.

In order to prevent a schism from developing among the ranks of the armed forces, Gallant has been trying to apply his influence in government to bring the domestic upheaval under control and free the military from its current political impasse. In Gallant's view, the way to achieve this is to achieve a broad consensus over judicial reform and to move on as a nation as quickly as possible to a set of priorities that will serve rather than wreck Israeli interests.

His messages to the public and the ruling coalition, of which he is a part, have reflected this.

"The citizens of Israel and the IDF need unity. Now is the time to put aside our differences and to find what we have in common and what unites us," Gallant urged on September 5.

"I call on my friends in the Knesset to reach consensus and to do so quickly—for the sake of our country and the security of the State of Israel," he added.

Five days later, on September 10, during an address to the World Summit on Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, Gallant issued one of his most detailed calls for the political system and civil society to rearrange their national priorities, following a description of Israel’s severe plethora of security threats.

"In the face of all these stands the State of Israel. Our military, intelligence, economic, and technological power allow our existence," he stated. In a hostile environment saturated with challenges, Israel has been able to defend itself due to the high-quality commanders and soldiers that it has, advanced weapons, breakthrough technology, and a deep understanding of enemy goals and modus operandi.

And yet, he warned, protecting the State of Israel is conditioned on the Israeli people being able to act in union and close rank.

This ability has been challenged disturbingly by a growing fissure in Israeli society over the feud regarding the balance of power between state authorities, he said.

"The price may be heavy—too heavy in national security contexts —and so major changes are made by broad consensus," he stressed.

"As the head of the security system, I declare here: The continuation of the internal struggle among different currents within the State of Israel seeps into the IDF and other security organizations and exacts a price that the IDF and the security system cannot bear," said Gallant in one of his sternest warnings to date.

"I'm not dealing with the question of who started or who is right. I say: The continuation of the internal struggle endangers national resilience, the Israel Defense Forces, and our ability to ensure security for the State of Israel and protect its citizens."

"How far are we willing to deepen the rift? When do we decide that it is our duty to return to the priorities suitable for the State of Israel?" he asked.

During his speech, Gallant laid out what he said was the correct national priority list, and it began with forming a broad national consensus on the major issues of the day.

"This is a prerequisite for ensuring the national security and continued prosperity of the State of Israel," he stressed.

He then listed the other priorities as preserving Israel's ability to defend itself against its enemies, chiefly against the Iranian nuclear threat and the terror arms sent towards Israel from its borders, followed by normalization with Saudi Arabia and through it with most of the Arab and Muslim world — an objective Gallant said could be missed by Israel if the internal rift continues.

In addition, he said, Israel’s security and political power are based on its economic capability and continued economic growth, which are themselves predicated on innovation and technology.

"It's important to remember that the condition for continued foreign investment, manufacturing, and innovation is stability. Social division and ongoing disputes also harm the vital economic effort for our future and existence," he stated.

Finally, he listed law and order and stopping serious crime in Israel's cities in general and in the Arab sector in particular as the final priorities to defend the social fabric of the country and Israel’s ability to function.

"Given the great challenges ahead, especially the security threats, which might become existential threats, we have to clearly tell ourselves—we have a duty to get back to the main issues. Security, normalization with our neighbors, a thriving economy, and the rule of law and order — all of these precede any other national effort and are more important than it," said Gallant.

"This is the priority; this is the precedence, and everything else can wait for the appropriate time and manner."

In July, indicators of the fissure in the military began to appear as 1,142 reservists, including many from the Israeli Air Force, conveyed an alarming message. They announced their intention to withdraw their participation in active service if an amendment to the Basic Law: The Judiciary, annulling the Reasonability Standard, which limits the Supreme Court's ability to oversee decisions made by the government, was approved. The amendment passed and Gallant has been dealing with the fallout ever since.

In fact, Gallant has been in crisis mode over this issue since at least March. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to fire Gallant on March 26, 2018, due to his issuing a public warning over the threat posed by the judicial reform issue to unity in the ranks.

There was an outpouring of public outrage that enveloped the whole country in response to the decision, which Netanyahu later overturned.

Ultimately, the unique composition of the IDF, which is comprised of both conscripts and reserve forces, means that no military technology or equipment can substitute a basic level of cohesion for the military to function properly, and this is what Gallant has been seeking to rescue from the fire of Israel’s domestic crisis.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST!

SUBSCRIBE HERE!

monthly brief: Three Key Strategic Events That Shaped Israel.

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

The month of September brings with it three key anniversaries of pivotal strategic events that have indelibly shaped Israel and the region.

The Gaza Disengagement

On September 22, 2005, Israel completed its unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip and North Samaria. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew from Gaza, and Israel evacuated every civilian and community from the Strip, uprooting over 9,000 Israeli settlers from 25 settlements.

Proposed by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, this maneuver aimed to bolster Israel’s security, initiate a separation from the Palestinians, and boost the country’s international stature.

Yet, just two years later, in 2007, Hamas ousted Fatah in Gaza, transforming the Strip into an Iranian-backed rocket launchpad.

Since then, Israel has grappled with four major armed conflicts with Gazan terror factions and several smaller rounds of hostilities, involving Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The skies over Israeli cities routinely blaze with rockets from Gazan terror factions.

Israel's pioneering Iron Dome air defense system, operational since 2011, has played a pivotal role in shielding its citizens and enabling the Israeli Air Force to lead campaigns against the terror groups by reducing pressure on Israeli governments to launch ground offensives. Meanwhile, Hamas’s ambitions extend beyond Gaza, as it eyes the West Bank with intent.

The Oslo Accords: Legacy of a Stalemate

Rewind to September 13, 1993. On the  White House lawn, President Bill Clinton, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, and PLO chief Yasser Arafat inscribed their signatures on the Oslo Accords. Three decades later, hopes of a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace appear to be buried. Yet, the Accords still profoundly influence the matrix of Israeli-Palestinian relations in the West Bank.

Today, the Palestinian Authority (PA) governs Area A of the West Bank and, despite numerous challenges, persists in its security collaboration with Israel. Notably, no Israeli government has abolished the Oslo agreements or disbanded Palestinian autonomy in major West Bank cities. The accords may have reached an impasse long ago, but the underlying arrangements continue to serve the mutual interests of both parties.

Echoes from 1973

This month, the Israel State Archive unveiled its most extensive dossier on the 1973 Yom Kippur War, shedding fresh light on the catastrophic intelligence lapses preceding Egypt and Syria's coordinated assault on Israel. The scars of the war, marked by Israel's unpreparedness and consequent heavy casualties, remain etched deep into its national consciousness.

Yet, the saga of the IDF rebounding from initial setbacks, summoning reserves, and launching counteroffensives that neared Cairo and Damascus is an enduring testament to Israeli resilience.

Today, the threats encircling Israel have metamorphosed. The specter of enemy infantry and tank brigades storming its borders has receded. In their place, terror armies, equipped with rocket and missile arsenals, lurk. Iran-backed terror armies such as Hezbollah, armed with an estimated 200,000 warheads and embedded within civilian enclaves, epitomize this threat.

While discerning enemy motives remains intricate in 2023, Israel’s extensive, technologically advanced intelligence infrastructure renders it far less vulnerable to strategic surprises than on the eve of the 1973 war.

Drawing lessons from the Yom Kippur debacle, Israel has spearheaded an intelligence renaissance. Today's IDF is backed by a cutting-edge sensor grid stretching across land, sea, air, and space, and fueled by artificial intelligence that processes vast quantities of intelligence.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST!

SUBSCRIBE HERE!

monthly brief: Constitutional Crisis Brewing? Israel Saudi Normalization & Israel-German Defense.

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

Israel's key institutions are finding themselves having to answer the question of how they would act in the event of a constitutional crisis.

Such a crisis could arise in a scenario in which the Israeli government refuses to adhere to a potential Supreme Court ruling striking down the government's amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary that narrows the 'Reasonableness Standard ' and thus takes away the court's ability to cancel government decisions or legislation on the grounds of their lack of reasonability. 

The head of Israel's national trade union, the Histadrut Labor Federation, Arnon Bar David, warned on August 16 that if the government precipitated such a crisis, his organization would act to shut down the Israeli economy with mass strikes. 

"A refusal to adhere to Supreme Court decisions would be a violation of the status quo. We will not allow it to happen," he warned. 

It is believed that the IDF, the Israel Police, the intelligence community, the diplomatic corps, and the civil service would side with the court in such a scenario. However, on Thursday, August 17, the candidate favored by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to become the next Israel Police Commissioner, Cmdr. Yoram Sofer, refused to answer a media question on the issue, calling the question "irrelevant."

Government ministers and Members of Knesset have recently refused to answer questions on how they would act in the event of a Supreme Court ruling to strike down the reasonableness standard. 

Saudi Arabia covers its 'Palestinian bases' ahead of possible normalization with Israel

On August 14, Saudi Arabia announced that it had appointed its ambassador to Jordan, Nayef bin Bandar Al-Sudairi, as “non-resident ambassador to the State of Palestine and Consul General in Jerusalem.”

The Saudi move seeks to protect the Kingdom’s legitimacy both domestically and in the Arab world. It sends a message that it has not forgotten about the Palestinian issue as it moves forward with a process aimed at normalizing ties with Israel and gaining security guarantees, advanced weapons, and a civil nuclear program from the United States. 

The Saudi appointment can be seen as a signal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, telling him that any normalization agreement will require significant concessions from Israel regarding the Palestinians, such as a commitment not to annex Area C of the West Bank, a halt to the construction of settlements deep within Area C, and possibly transferring parts of Area C to Palestinian Authority, as well as other steps designed to stabilize the PA's rule. 

It is unclear what kind of impact such steps would have on the stability of Israel's ruling coalition, which includes nationalist-religious elements ideologically opposed to the division of the Land of Israel. 

The Palestinian Authority welcomed the Saudi appointment, saying that the “timing of the decision reflects the interest of the brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the Palestinian cause,” the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates said in a statement Sunday.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Tel Aviv’s 103 FM radio station Sunday that Israel was aware of Saudi Arabia’s planned appointment, but that the kingdom did not coordinate with Israel on the matter.

US authorizes sale of Israel’s Arrow 3 air defense system to Germany

The Israeli Ministry of Defense, German Federal Ministry of Defense, and Israel Aerospace Industries confirmed on August 17 that they will sign a record-breaking $3.5 billion defense agreement – Israel’s largest-ever defense deal – for the supply of the Arrow 3 Israeli air-defense system to Germany.

The system will achieve initial operational capacity by 2025 and full capacity by 2030.

Germany’s investment in the Arrow 3 system, which intercepts ballistic missiles in space at exceptionally long ranges and high altitudes, comes against the backdrop of the threat posed by Russia and its missile arsenal.

IAI CEO Boaz Levy, whose mother was a Holocaust survivor, noted the powerful historical significance of the Jewish state providing a defense system for the German people 78 years after the Second World War.

Arrow 3 is the leading missile defense system of its kind for the interception of exo-atmospheric ballistic missiles, according to the Israeli Defense Ministry.

After receiving approval from the U.S. government, senior officials from the Israeli and German Ministries of Defense will partake in a ceremony to sign a Letter of Commitment (LOC), that marks the commencement of the agreement. The allocated commitment of $600 million will facilitate the immediate initiation of work on the project, said the Ministry.

As part of the deal, IAI and the Israeli Air Force will provide training to the German Air Force.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST!

SUBSCRIBE HERE!

MirYam In The Media: Israel ‘one of the world’s top cyber powers’

Yaakov Lappin IN CONVERSATION WITH: PROF. CHUCK FREILICH

Israel’s position as a cyber superpower places it in an exclusive club of world powers, despite having a population a little larger than New York City, according to former Israeli defense official Chuck Freilich.

Freilich, a senior research fellow at the MirYam Institute and the Institute for National Security Studies and a former deputy national security adviser in Israel, recently published a book on the subject, titled, “Israel and Cyber Threat: How the Startup Nation Became a Global Cyber Power.”

A former senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School who teaches at Columbia and at Tel Aviv University, Freilich said Israel’s cyber capabilities are prominent at both the civilian and military levels. The number of cyber start-ups in Israel equals the total number of cyber start-ups in the world, excluding the United States, he noted.

“This is a stunning statistic. It’s the result of a really unique contribution to the Israeli hi-tech scene in general, and the cyber realm especially, by the defense establishment and intelligence agencies,” said Freilich.

Graduates of the Israel Defense Forces cyber units, mainly Unit 8200 and Unit 81, as well as intelligence agencies, enter the private sector and become a primary source of commercial start-ups, he explained.

This in turn acts as a driving force behind cyber innovation. The fact that the Israeli defense establishment funds incubators and technological innovation programs also contributes to this prosperity of the local cyber scene, according to Freilich.

The military units “find and train Israel’s cyber personnel, and most importantly, the really top-level personnel. In the cyber world, a few geniuses make all the difference,” he added.

Between 2011 and 2020, some 100 veterans of Unit 81, who served in the years between 2003 and 2010, went on to found 50 start-ups, with an accumulated evaluation of over $10 billion, Freilich noted. “That’s 100 veterans alone,” he said.

“Another mind blowing statistic is that the NSA [the U.S. National Security Agency] has about 40,000 personnel, while Unit 8200 [its Israeli equivalent] reportedly has a quarter of that, 10,000 people. Most of what Unit 8200 does is cyber based. Here you have little Israel on the scale of a global superpower. Each year, between a few hundred and a thousand cyber personnel are discharged in Israel. China’s 2022 graduating cyber school count was 1,300. So we have a cyber force on the scale of global superpowers,” he stated.

Pointing to compulsory military service as the core secret sauce behind this success, Freilich argues that this enables the IDF to track down the best and the brightest, with the military scouting high school databases and beginning to locate suitable youths by the 10th grade.

“One percent of the best high school graduates go to Atuda [a program that enables them to study and delay military service] and Talpiyot [a program that sends students to complete BAs in mathematics and natural sciences as part of their service]. Talpiyot looks at the top 2%, and then begins an intensive testing process. Only 10% of that 2% pass and are then further winnowed down through a grueling aptitude testing process,” said Freilich, describing the rigorous screening process.

With regard to Unit 81, while 10,000 candidates passed initial annual screening, only a few hundred went on to be selected.

“All told, the IDF trains 10,000 people a year in cyber programs. This is a huge training program, not only giving people computer skills, but also reaching the real geniuses,” he said.

Freilich added that a third of graduates of a Unit 8200 high school program that teaches university-level cyber come from peripheral areas.

He also drew attention to Israel’s national style, which he described in his book as “hutzpah gone viral.”

“Israeli society has a never-ending propensity to challenge authority and reject accepted norms, refusing to take no for an answer, and thirsting for new ways of achieving things,” said Freilich.

“Our strategic circumstances means we have a greater willingness to take risks, and we are non-hierarchical and informal,” he added. “That’s the same culture you find in R&D firms around the world. So cyber fits Israel like a glove.”

On Aug. 8, the Mayanei HaYeshua Medical Center in Bnei Brak announced that it had been struck by a cyber-attack, forcing personnel to switch to pen and paper before recovering computer networks.

Despite Israel’s cyber achievements, problems still exist in protecting the civil sector, Freilich admitted.

“There is reason to be concerned about that and critical national infrastructure, like water and communications—the type of sites that the Israel National Cyber Directorate defends the most. They get specially tailored defense packages, but there is still reason for concern,” said Freilich.

Iran, for its part, woke up to the cyber realm after sustaining the devastating 2009 Stuxnet attack, which international media reports attributed to Israel and the United States.

“Be wary of the law of unintended consequences,” said Freilich. “Until 2010, Iran wasn’t doing much in this area. By 2012, it was launching offensive attacks around the world.”

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

monthly brief: Israel On Edge As Reasonability Clause Moves Ahead.

By YAAKOV LAPPIN

The State of Israel is at a boiling point as the coalition and its opponents face off over the government’s bill to erase the judicial reasonableness standard as part of its controversial judicial reform program.

Members of the Israeli protest movement have been planning further "days of resistance" to express opposition to the reforms, which they say endanger Israeli democracy. The protests include disruption of train services, marches in cities, and mass rallies on Tel Aviv’s Kaplan Street, the epicenter of weekly nation-wide demonstrations.

The coalition plans to convene the Knesset plenum on July 23 to pass the so-called "reasonableness" bill, which seeks to prevent Israeli courts from using the reasonableness standard in evaluating government decisions.

Opposition members have requested more time to submit objections to the bill.

The bill will be sent to the Knesset plenum for its final second and third readings after all committee work on it was completed in recent days, according to Knesset Member Simcha Rothman (Religious Zionist party), Chairman of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee.

Rothman’s handling of the procedure has drawn criticism from opposition legislators, who assert that the entire legislative process is flawed and being run by "messianic fanatics who shut their ears to the truth."

According to a poll published earlier this month by Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan, 43% of Israelis oppose the reasonableness bill.

Thirty one percent of respondents said they support the bill, while 25% stated they were unsure of their position. Furthermore, the poll found that 36% of Israelis believe police should act in a harsher manner against protesters blocking roads, while 24% believe police are already acting too harshly. A further 24% believe police are acting appropriately. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking at the July 17 weekly cabinet meeting, addressed calls by a number of IDF reservists to stop volunteering for service if the bill is passed, stating, “To all those who wave the flag of democracy, I would like to say a few words about democracy: In a democracy, the military is subordinate to the elected government and not the opposite, whereas in a military regime, the government is subordinate to the military, or to be more precise, to a group within the military. This is the fundamental difference between a democracy and a military regime. Incitement to refusal to serve, and refusal to serve itself, are contrary to democracy and contrary to law. This is true in every democracy but in ours, incitement to refusal to serve, and refusal to serve, directly endanger the security of all citizens of Israel. They gnaw away at our deterrence of our enemies, and this could easily develop into aggression against us. Moreover, they undermine discipline within the military, and discipline is the foundation of the military's existence in the first place.”

The Palestinian Authority returns to Jenin

Israel watched closely as PA security forces returned to Jenin on July 10, after a two-day intensive security operation held in the northern West Bank city by the IDF on July 3 and 4. 

The operation saw a brigade-sized force of elite units enter Jenin after dozens of shooting attacks, as well as rocket and IED attacks, were carried out by terrorists from the city. The operation was aimed at making sure Jenin no longer served as a terrorist safe haven.

The IDF said it seized over a thousand terrorist weapons, including bombs, ammunition, and guns, and questioned over 300 suspects. Over 120 were detained, and the IDF destroyed command posts, hideouts, and bomb-making facilities.

Twelve Palestinian combatants and an IDF soldier were killed in the operation. Hundreds of terrorist gunmen fled Jenin, paving the path for the PA’s attempted return.

The IDF sent in elite units, including Maglan, Duvdevan, the Paratrooper Brigade Reconnaissance Unit, Nahal Reconnaissance Unit, and Egoz. The operational model employed by the IDF in Jenin may, if necessary, be applied to future raids in areas of the West Bank that experience a collapse of PA rule.

Nasrallah gambles, and wins (so far)

Israel's lack of response to a series of recent provocations by Hezbollah is a mistake and the effort to bring about a diplomatic resolution is a bad joke, said Prof. Eyal Zisser, a senior Middle East scholar at Tel Aviv University, in criticism of how Israel has handled an escalation by the Iran-backed terrorist army in Lebanon.

The 17th anniversary of the 2006 Second Lebanon War sees the prospect of another conflagration that could become the Third Lebanon War, Zisser warned. Hezbollah resolved to escalate the situation in March, sending a terrorist across the border to stage an IED attack on an Israeli highway. Israel chose not to respond and Hezbollah saw this as weakness, Zisser argued.

An April rocket attack from Lebanon, conveniently attributed to Hamas, gave Nasrallah plausible deniability. Now, Israel has to decide how to deal with a tent pitched by Hezbollah on Israeli territory and which houses armed operatives; Nasrallah has already threatened to launch kill squads into the Galilee region of Israel.

Nasrallah — who has a reputation as a gambler — is convinced that Israel is bogged down with internal strife and will not retaliate against his provocations. Zisser added that Nasrallah had upped his wager by firing an anti-tank missile at Israeli forces in early July, as well as through repeated attempts by Hezbollah operatives to sabotage the border fence with Israel.

UK MoD invests millions in Israeli active protection system

The Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom announced July 13 that it had awarded a £20 million contract to secure the hardware for the next phase of tests on a cutting-edge new rocket and missile protection system for Britain’s Challenger 3 tanks.

The system in question is the Trophy Active Protection System (APS), produced by Israel’s Rafael defense company. Trophy will be tested and integrated with Challenger 3 to provide enhanced protection against rocket and missile threats, while simultaneously finding the origin of the hostile fire for immediate response, the statement said. “The system can locate an incoming rocket or missile in less than a second, destroying it by firing back its own ammunition,” the statement added.

In 2021, Rafael completed the supply of 400 Trophy systems for four US Army Abram tank brigades.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR PODCAST!

SUBSCRIBE HERE!

Monthly Brief: Terror Attack, Israel-Iran & The Economy

By Yaakov Lappin

Israel mourned four of its civilians on June 20 after they were murdered in a Palestinian shooting terror attack at a gas station near the settlement of Eli in Samaria. Armed with M-16s, two Palestinian gunmen affiliated with Hamas, but not official members of it, conducted the attack.

An armed Israeli bystander killed one of the terrorists at the scene, while the other escaped and two hour later was located and killed by a team of Israeli special forces and Shin Bet agents.

The attack is the latest escalation in what has been a long-standing deterioration of the security situation in the northern West Bank, prompting growing calls for a larger security operation.

The first signs of a new Israeli approach to security in the region emerged on June 21, when an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle struck a vehicle carrying Palestinian gunmen on the way to carry out a terrorist attack, according to the IDF and Shin Bet.

Two days earlier, the Israel Defense Forces had to call in air assistance in the form of an Apache helicopter strike to assist stranded ground forces in Jenin on June 19

The use of air support reflects the worsening nature of the fighting in Samaria, where a routine security operation to arrest two terror suspects, one from Hamas and one from Palestinian Islamic Jihad, became entangled.

IDF and Border Police forces raided Jenin camp and engaged in intense exchanges of fire that resulted in the deaths of four to five Palestinian combatants. They, in turn, detonated powerful IEDs that caused a number of Israeli Panther armored vehicles to become stranded. Eight Israeli security personnel were injured in the incident.

When an IDF helicopter sent in to evacuate the wounded personnel came under fire, IDF commanders sent in air reinforcements, to enable the evacuation to proceed.

Looking at the bigger picture, it is clear that Jenin is out of control and that the likelihood of a large-scale IDF operation there is growing with time.

The Palestinian Authority in practice has no presence there, and it has become a major base of operations for terrorists, not only locally, but also from across the West Bank, who view it as a refuge. It seems that both terrorists and arms are flowing into the city.

The linkage between political instability and Israeli economic performance

After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 18 that his coalition administration would go ahead with parts of its controversial judicial reform program, the shekel lost value, and Israeli shares were trading between losses and gains.

On June 19, a day after Netanyahu’s statement, the shekel fell as low as 3.61 to the dollar and was trading at 3.60 at the close of trade.

The blue-chip TA-35 index on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange was flat, while the benchmark TA-125 index fell 0.1%, the Times of Israel reported. The TA-5 Bank Index was down 0.4%, and the TA-Finance Index was down 0.6%.

The report cited Sabina Levy, head of research at Leader Capital Markets, as stating that volatility around trading in the exchange rate was mainly influenced by comments from Israeli government officials and reports around the plans for the judicial reform.

This is the latest unmistakable sign that Israel’s economy needs political stability and consensus politics if it is to continue to perform well, and that political instability threatens Israel’s economic future in a strategic manner.

The Israeli – Iranian arms race

On June 14th, Israeli defense company Rafael revealed that it is working on a new missile interceptor dubbed "Sky Sonic," which is specifically intended to counter the new threat of hypersonic missiles. The announcement came days after Iran announced that it is working on its first hypersonic missile, which it said is highly maneuverable and unpredictable.

Hypersonic missiles travel at high speeds like ballistic missiles do, but unlike ballistic missiles, employ high maneuverability to take unpredictable courses to their targets.

Ahead of the globally important Paris Air Show, Rafael released a statement calling its new interceptor a groundbreaking defensive response to the growing threat of hypersonic missiles.

A "major technological leap" with "exceptional maneuverability and high-speed capabilities," Sky Sonic "neutralizes hypersonic missiles, which travel at ten times the speed of sound, with unmatched precision and stealth," the company stated.

The interceptor operates above the 20-kilometer mark and below the 100-kilometer level, where hypersonic threats are active, and where current air defense systems are not.

According to the sources, the interceptor is programmed to intercept at an altitude and location that allows air defenders to avoid needing to know the precise onward trajectory of the threat, representing a breakthrough in air defenses.

A reliable source stated, "At that altitude, it doesn't matter where it [the threat] is going."

 When the system detects a hypersonic threat, the kill vehicle splits from the booster body and rapidly travels to a designated interception point.

Rafael sources further explained that the three-year development of Sky Sonic has been funded by the firm’s own research and development funds,  

According to the sources, the kill vehicle is equipped with its own sensors, but they would not elaborate on what those sensors are. The system will rely on a completely integrated "sky picture" provided by several radars, they added.

The system was presented to the US Missile Defense Agency.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Monthly Brief, Has Israel Strengthened Its Deterrence?

By Yaakov Lappin

Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror faction in Gaza were embroiled in a five-day conflict, which ended on May 12, dubbed Operation Shield and Arrow by the Israel Defense Forces. At the time of this writing, the truce between the sides had entered its first day with a projectile fired from Gaza violating the ceasefire less than 24 hours after it was reached. The IDF responded by striking two Hamas military posts, representing a return to the Israeli policy of holding Hamas responsible for attacks out of Gaza.

These events may seem eerily similar to the security situation that existed before the launch of Shield and Arrow on May 9, but appearances can be deceptive.

At the strategic level, the operation was not designed to change the basic equation in Gaza. It is still ruled over by Hamas, a terrorist Islamist regime, with its own Iranian-funded army and rocket arsenal. It is still home to other, smaller, factions that do not have government responsibilities, but are just as murderous as Hamas, if not more so – with one Iranian proxy, PIJ, standing out.

After PIJ terrorized the residents of Sderot with a 102-rocket barrage on May 2, to ‘avenge’ the suicide of its hunger-striking prisoner in an Israeli prison, the Israeli defense establishment felt the time had come to stabilize the Southern and Gazan arena and to knock PIJ back down to size or face a broader escalation scenario involving Hamas.

As a result, on May 9, after days of intricate intelligence tracking, and waiting for operational opportunities to arise, within the space of three seconds, simultaneous Israeli airstrikes in three separate locations eliminated three of PIJ’s senior military commanders.

PIJ then set out to terrorize Israeli civilians for the next five days and thereby exposed its operatives and assets to accurate and devastating Israeli firepower, guided by the highest quality intelligence.

When the smoke cleared, PIJ had lost twenty-one of its operatives, including the decapitation of its entire operational command level – with six senior commanders killed. Many of its rocket launchers and weapons bases, as well as command and control centers, were destroyed. PIJ’s leader, Ziad al-Nakhalah, sitting comfortably on the Iranian payroll in Beirut, and under Iranian pressure to keep going, could no longer ignore the calls from his own embattled operatives to accept the truce. Israel had proven that it is prepared to launch surprise attacks, to overcome terrorist tactics of human shielding, and to employ precision air power anywhere it needed to. The obvious message reverberated among larger enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Their operatives aren’t immune either.

Air defenses

In five days of conflict, PIJ fired 1,469 rockets at Israel, of which 1,139 crossed into Israeli air space, while 291 misfired and fell in Gaza. Three Palestinian civilians were killed by PIJ rockets falling in Gaza.

More than 95% of projectiles aimed at inhabited areas were intercepted by Iron Dome. The system offers a very high – but not hermetic level of defense. The approximate 5 percent gap in defenses stopped being a dry statistic and took on tragic real-life form when a rocket slammed into a residential building in Rehovot, south of Tel Aviv, killing an 80-year-old woman in her living room. A Gazan worker was the second civilian killed in Israel by PIJ rockets, in the western Negev region.

David’s Sling, the intermediate altitude defense system, made its first operationally successful appearance since going online in 2017. The Israeli Air Force used it to intercept two projectiles, testing its capabilities.

In the coming year, Israel is expected to begin deploying its Iron Beam laser interceptor, first on the ground, and later, on-board UAVs, which will be used to intercept rockets, mortars, and drones at the speed of light, and at a fraction of the cost of kinetic interceptors.

With Hamas’s cross-border tunnels cut off by Israel’s underground barrier, and Israeli air defenses improving by the year, the growing technological gap gives Israeli decision-makers hope that they can contain the threats from Gaza, and even significantly reduce the number of sirens in the Israeli home front in the future with the help of the laser interception technology, which can destroy some of the rockets over Gaza before they enter Israeli airspace.  

Offense

The IDF struck 371 PIJ targets, including apartments used by PIJ for command and control, weapons storage facilities, rocket launchers, and bases.

Israeli aircraft, both manned and unmanned – jets, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles – were nourished with intelligence from a range of sources. The IDF Southern Command, Military Intelligence, and the Shin Bet intelligence agency worked hand-in-hand to locate targets and ensure they were free of large numbers of civilians. All of this, in dense difficult urban conditions, with PIJ cynically employing human shielding tactics, which are a core aspect of the doctrine of the region’s terror armies.

IDF officials shared accounts of watching PIJ commanders issue orders to rocket launching squads as they stood in apartments and drove in vehicles surrounded by their children. The IDF waited patiently for better opportunities and struck when they presented.

Looking ahead

The Gaza ceasefire seems likely to hold. On May 18, Israel will mark Jerusalem Day, celebrating the reunification of the city during the 1967 Six-Day War. This is always a period of high tension in Jerusalem, but one that Israel can manage in a manner that does not necessarily lead to new escalations in the capital or the West Bank.

Israel’s goal of stabilizing Gaza, without being drawn into a costly and major war, will be put to the test in the coming weeks. Other arenas are far more urgent: Iran is approaching dangerous nuclear thresholds, Hezbollah in Lebanon has amassed a monstrous arsenal of projectiles, including precision-guided missiles, and Iran is continuously trying to smuggle offensive capabilities into Syria, where it would like to build a second Hezbollah.

Israel’s multi-arena challenges mean that Gaza is but one arena among many.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

MirYam In The Media: Hamas’s al-Arouri and the Iranian connection

Yaakov Lappin IN CONVERSATION WITH: COL. DAVID HACHAM

Hamas’s deputy political bureau chief, Saleh al-Arouri, currently based in Lebanon, is interested in surrounding Israel with rocket and terror bases, and so is Iran.
That common interest has enabled al-Arouri to create new levels of cooperation between his Sunni-Islamist terror faction and the radical Shi’ite regime in Tehran.

“This is actually one of the strong people within Hamas. I would actually say that he is among the top three of the movement,” said IDF Col. (res.) Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, and a senior researcher at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Reichman University in Herzliya.

According to Milshtein, al-Arouri is responsible for the Judea and Samaria arena on behalf of Hamas, including Jerusalem. In addition, al-Arouri coordinates Hamas activity with other members of “the axis of resistance,” said Milshtein, ex-head of the Department for Palestinians Affairs in IDF Military Intelligence.

Al-Arouri is also responsible for a large portion of Hamas’s military operations abroad, said Milshtein. He “manages to direct tactical military activity but also be involved and think strategically, and basically ‘swim’ between the two worlds,” he added.

IDF Col. (res.) David Hacham, a senior research associate at the MirYam Institute and a former adviser on Arab affairs to seven Israeli defense ministers, said al-Arouri joined Hamas’s military in the early 1990s, during the First Intifada.’

“He was responsible for establishing Hamas’s military wing in the Judea and Samaria region. For his activities, he sat in an Israeli prison for 18 years. After his release, he went o to Syria, where he settled. Later, in 2012, he left Syria after the outbreak of the country’s civil war, and came to Turkey where he headed Hamas headquarters,” said Hacham.

“In 2015, after Israeli and American pressure on Turkey, he moved to Qatar along with most of Hamas’s overseas leadership. After a short stopover in Malaysia, he arrived in Lebanon where he currently operates,” Hacham said.

In 2014, the Israeli military demolished his home in the village of Aroura, near Ramallah, believing him to have been involved in the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers in Judea and Samaria.

Al-Arouri, like the head of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, represents the younger generation in the Hamas leadership, according to the Israeli observers. Both have operational experience and have served lengthy prison terms, speak Hebrew and are familiar with Israel, unlike members of the older Hamas generation, such as Khaled Mashaal, said Hacham.

Milshtein described al-Arouri as a major connector between Hamas and other members of the radical Islamist camp opposed to Israel’s existence. For example, al-Arouri’s role in the launch by Hamas of 34 rockets at northern Israel from Lebanon in April this year was a prominent one, he said.

Al-Arouri’s unique role is enabled by two factors, according to Milshtein. “One is Arouri’s location in Beirut. And the other is his basic approach for vigorous promotion of jihad in several arenas. Especially in Judea and Samaria and the newer arena—Lebanon. This makes him a favorite for Tehran and Hezbollah,” said Milshtein. “In this context, he is involved in formulating strategic relations, but also in practical terms, he is involved in weapons procurement, training, organization, military cooperation and more.”

Hacham cautioned that Arouri’s objective of unifying fronts against Israel directly contradicts Israel’s essential interest of differentiating between the arenas.

“This is particularly true for Israel’s differentiation between Gaza and Judea and Samaria. Hamas, on the other hand, wants to create as close a connection as possible between the various conflict arenas—Gaza, Judea and Samaria, Jerusalem, the Arab sector in Israel and Lebanon—and to gain effective control over the power switch of escalation,” he said.

“Hamas strives to ensure its ability to ignite and activate the arenas, individually or together, at an appropriate time according to the circumstances,” he added.

According to Milshtein, Al-Arouri’s intense efforts help him greatly with regard to fortifying his status within Hamas as someone who succeeds in preserving “the jihad,” and who found a way to activate arenas against Israel.

“I would describe al-Arouri and Sinwar as two halves of the same whole. Each is responsible for another major activity area in Hamas. They share the same concept, and I believe both are strategically coordinated,” said Milshtein.

Hacham said Israel has so far avoided eliminating al-Arouri for a number of reasons.

First, he spent many of the past 15 years in sovereign countries, some of which have diplomatic ties with Israel, Hacham noted. Second, previous targeted killings have shown that leaders are quickly replaced in terror factions, and third, there is concern that his elimination would increase motivation for terrorist revenge attacks on Israeli targets, or could spark a wider escalation.

Nevertheless, said Hacham, al-Arouri could certainly become a future target for assassination.

“Targeted killings are the number one worry of the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaderships,” said Hacham, who spoke with JNS before Israel launched “Operation Shield and Arrow” on Tuesday with the assassination of three senior PIJ commanders in Gaza.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Professor Chuck Freilich, serves as Adjunct Associate Professor of Political Science, Dept of Political Science at Columbia University. He is a former deputy national security adviser in Israel and long-time senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center, has taught political science at Harvard, Columbia, NYU and Tel Aviv University. Read full bio here.

Monthly Brief, Israel marks Memorial Day; but will it bring national unity?

By Yaakov Lappin

Yom Hazikaron, Israel’s Memorial Day for Fallen Soldiers and Victims of Hostile Acts begins at 8 p.m. on Monday, April 24, with a nationwide siren that marks the start of ceremonies across the country. President Isaac Herzog and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi will attend the opening ceremony at the Western Wall, where a memorial candle is lit.

On Tuesday, April 25, a two-minute nationwide siren will sound at 11 a.m. before the main ceremony at the Mount Herzl military cemetery commences. Bereaved family members attend military ceremonies across Israel.

Memorial Day commemorates those who fell in defense of the Israeli people, from the pre-state era to the present day. When the sirens sound, traffic on roads comes to a standstill, and members of the public stop what they are doing to stand in silence in honor of the fallen. Flags fly at half-mast throughout the day.

In an almost unfathomable shift, Memorial Day transitions into the start of celebrations of Israel's 75th Independence Day on the evening of April 25. This is a deliberately designed emotional rollercoaster to remind Israelis that their independence and security are inseparable from the ultimate sacrifices made by the fallen soldiers.  

The big question is whether these vitally important national days will succeed in alleviating to any degree the unprecedented polarization afflicting Israeli society and stemming from the political crisis over the government's judicial reform program, but now extending far beyond it.

In a sign of the times, Yair Lapid, the leader of the opposition, has announced his intention to boycott Independence Day celebrations.

With Iranian and Hezbollah assistance, Hamas tests out its multi-arena strategy.

This month, during Passover and Ramadan, Hamas made dangerous advances toward implementing its four-arena strategy against Israel. According to this doctrine, Hamas launches attacks (or encourages others to launch attacks) from the following arenas: Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, and Jerusalem and elsewhere within Israel.

Hamas's preference is to be able to activate the Lebanese, West Bank, and Jerusalem arenas without endangering its Gaza regime.

After Islamist students instigated clashes with the Israeli Police on the Temple Mount on April 5, some 50 rockets were fired by terrorists in Gaza at southern communities between April 5 and April 7, while 34 rockets were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel on April 6—the heaviest barrage from Lebanon since the 2006 Second Lebanon War. On April 8, three rockets were fired at the Golan Heights from Syria. Hamas is behind the Lebanese and Gazan rocket attacks.

In response, the Israeli Air Force launched airstrikes in Lebanon and mostly in Gaza, signaling to Hamas that its efforts to keep Gaza quiet would fail if the escalation continued.

All these developments contribute to Hamas's goal of promoting a violent Islamist conflict narrative with Israel. As a result, Hamas's main Palestinian competitor, the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which Hamas accuses of being traitors and collaborators with Israel, sees its status diminish on the Palestinian street.

This aligns closely with the Iranian-Hezbollah axis's desire to surround Israel with a ring of fire, and it is improbable to believe that Hamas could have activated a Lebanese front at this scale without Hezbollah and Iranian approval, as well as Iranian assistance in rocket production.

The scenario of a multi-arena conflict is one that Iran is actively promoting to try and threaten and demoralize Israel and keep it busy with its borders. But this strategy can be a double-edged sword. Israel too can adopt a multi-arena logic in which, for example, it responds to Hamas in Gaza for attacks coming out of Lebanon. And it can respond to Iran anywhere in the Middle East for actions that the Islamic Republic takes to threaten Israel's security and violate its sovereignty. In other words, the multi-arena tool can be used by anyone in this conflict.

A glimpse into what Israel-Iran relations could one day be like

Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted Iranian Shah, made his first visit to Israel on Monday, April 17, together with his wife Yakima.

“We are very happy to be here and are dedicated to working toward the peaceful and prosperous future that the people of our region deserve," he tweeted after landing at Ben-Gurion Airport and being received by Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel, who had helped plan his visit.

“From the children of Cyrus to the children of Israel, we will build this future together, in friendship,” he added, in reference to the Persian king who ended the Babylonian exile and facilitated the re-building of the Temple in Jerusalem

Pahlavi attended Israel’s Martyrs’ and Heroes’ Remembrance Day ceremony on April 17. He provided a small glimpse into the future potential relationship between the Iranian people – 80 % of whom are now opposed to their regime, according to reported Israeli intelligence assessments – and the Israeli people, if one day the radical Islamic regime in Tehran falls. 

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

MirYam In The Media: Israel security forces face concrete terror alerts

By Yaakov Lappin

The Israeli security establishment has received dozens of concrete alerts about plots to carry out terrorist attacks, both in Judea and Samaria, commonly known as the West Bank, and within the Green Line, a former defense official tells JNS.

Col. (res.) David Hacham, a senior research associate at the MirYam Institute and a former advisor on Arab affairs to seven Israeli defense ministers, added that the March 13 roadside bombing attack by a terrorist who infiltrated Israel from Lebanon reflects an effort “to connect the arenas of conflict”—Lebanon and Judea and Samaria—likely by a coalition of Lebanese and Palestinian terrorist organizations.

“It seems the attack was initiated by elements of Hezbollah and Hamas, and perhaps by others. There is a desire here to integrate arenas of conflict against Israel. And I also link the attack to the domestic situation, the crisis gripping Israel [regarding the government’s judicial reform program]. Terrorist organizations view the crisis as an opportunity to take advantage of and attack,” said Hacham. “They see that Israel is busy now and they perceive it as weakened.”

Addressing Sunday’s regional summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, which was designed to secure a de-escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hacham said the talks were “divorced from the reality on the ground.”

Officials from Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Jordan and the U.S. met in the Sinai resort.

Jerusalem was represented by Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) director Ronen Bar and National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi.

The Palestinian delegation was led by P.A. Civil Affairs Minister Hussein al-Sheikh and General Intelligence Service chief Majed Faraj.

Brett McGurk, National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, represented the United States, alongside Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry.

Hacham said that despite the positive images, a large gap remains between the discussions and “the situation on the ground.”

During the summit, Israel reportedly agreed to freeze construction in Judea and Samaria for four months and to stop recognizing unauthorized outposts for six months.

The P.A. reportedly committed to implementing its “legal right” to carry out security responsibilities in Area A of Judea and Samaria, where the great majority of the Palestinian population is located.

The sides also reportedly created a forum to further discuss Palestinian demands to receive tax funds that Israel has withheld after deducting the equivalent of the monthly stipends paid to terrorists.

“The P.A. is struggling to impose its authority on the ground. The agreements reached will not be worth the paper they were written on,” Hacham assessed.

Ramadan flashpoint?

Looking ahead, Hacham warned that with Ramadan set to start on Wednesday or Thursday night, what is already an escalation in Palestinian violence could get significantly worse.

He connected the period with religious emotions as well as deliberate incitement, especially from Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip, through the media and social networks.

“When combined, these elements are an almost certain prescription for a security deterioration and escalation,” Hacham warned.

“It is important to emphasize that according to extreme scenarios, the escalation trend could spread to the Gaza Strip and the Arab sector in Israel. These problematic scenarios must be taken seriously by the senior security and political echelon, and require Israel to prepare for them,” he said.

The Ramadan month is characterized by fasting from sunrise to sunset, creating feelings of ongoing pressure for some who observe it, and this could motivate potential attackers to more easily take part in violence against Israeli targets, according to Hacham. “In this state, any incident can push potential attackers into striking,” he said.

“In practice, we are beyond the stage of escalation in the conflict with the Palestinians. Every event has a major significance; it can lead to yet more escalations.”

The Israeli Defense Ministry’s unit for Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) meanwhile announced on Monday steps to facilitate Ramadan festivities.

COGAT said the measures reflect “the recommendations of the security services and are intended to provide freedom of worship for the Palestinian public.”

The measures include approving the entry of Palestinian worshippers onto the Temple Mount for Friday prayers during the month of Ramadan, but with restrictions for security purposes. 

“Females of all ages, and boys up to the age of 12, may enter with no need for an existing permit. Men 55 years of age and older may enter without a permit, and men 45 years of age and older, but less than 55, may enter provided they have a valid permit. All permits are contingent on receipt of security approval,” said COGAT.

“Also for Ramadan, visits to family in Israel have been approved for Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria, as well as visits to relatives in Judea and Samaria by residents of foreign countries. We emphasize that issuance of all permits is subject to security approval,” it added.

Ultimately, said Hacham, of the three options available regarding the future of Judea and Samaria: strengthening the P.A. to enable it to continue to rule there; a Hamas takeover; and a return of the area to Israeli direct control, the first is the one that is aligned with Israel’s core security interests.

Israel should manage future events with this strategic reality in mind, he said.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Monthly Brief, Judicial Reform, Terror Threats & Israel Dubai Defense deal

By Yaakov Lappin

Israel’s Channel 12 News reported March 17 that Justice Minister Yariv Levin and Knesset Constitution Committee Chair Simcha Rothman are considering a one-year suspension of their judicial overhaul program, except for planned changes to the judicial selection committee, which stand at the heart of the reform.

If the changes are implemented, this would give the ruling government coalition a majority in the committee and allow it to appoint three Supreme Court judges this year, while also replacing the court's president.

The report is the latest sign of efforts underway by the coalition to search for a last minute compromise to the unprecedented political and societal crisis that is gripping Israel. The coalition wishes to pass at least part of its program by the end of the Knesset's winter session on April 2.

However, if no compromise is reached and the Supreme Court rules the measures to be illegal, the Court is likely to strike down the reform leading to an unprecedented a constitutional crisis.

In the event of a constitutional crisis, who will the IDF, the Israel Police, the civil service, and others listen to — the Supreme Court or the government? If Israel’s institutions are forced to make such a choice, this could lead to scenes of chaos on the streets, which are already filled with hundreds of thousands of anti-reform demonstrators, and it is one that the government will try to avoid.

Terrorist from Lebanon plants roadside bomb in North

A roadside bomb that severely wounded a motorist in northern Israel on March 13 was planted by a terrorist who infiltrated the country from Lebanon, security forces revealed.

Authorities said Israeli forces killed the terrorist as he attempted to return to Lebanon. The IDF has not yet named who they believe dispatched the terrorist but has not ruled out the possibility he was sent by Hezbollah.

Shareef ad-Din, 21, from the Israeli Arab town of Salem, was the Arab Israeli driver wounded when the explosive device detonated around 6 a.m. on Route 65 near Megiddo Junction. The bomb was planted behind a barrier by the side of the road, some 18 miles southeast of Haifa.

The Megiddo Junction is 37 miles from the border with Lebanon. Getting there by road would add another 12.5 miles to the trip.

After the blast, the IDF, Shin Bet, and Israel Police began a joint manhunt in an effort to catch the terrorist, including the establishment of roadblocks in northern Israel.

A checkpoint near the village of Ya'ara stopped a car with a suspect inside who was armed with suicide bomb vest and a gun. Israeli security forces shot and killed him. A second man, a driver, was arrested and later released.

Security sources say that the suspect probably planned to perpetrate another attack before returning to Lebanon.

In trying to ascertain which terror organization is behind the attack, Hezbollah is the immediate suspect, due to its control over southern Lebanon, though Hamas is also a suspect. A collaboration between both – with Iranian knowledge and assistance - is also a possibility.

Could the attack be an attempt by Israel’s enemies to exploit the political crisis?  Was it a response to the recent drone attack on Iran’s weapons site in Isfahan, or strikes on Iranian targets in Syria?

Whoever launched the attack is testing Israel’s response in a deniable manner, trying to avoid the threshold of war.

Israeli defense company Rafael and Dubai police jointly taking on drone threats

Israel's Rafael defense company announced March 16 that it will cooperate with Dubai Police in addressing regional drone challenges and strengthening the anti-drone capabilities of Dubai Police.

Rafael’s Drone Dome uses electronic jammers, advanced sensors, and AI algorithms to protect threatened airspace against drone intrusions.

 The goal of the partnership is to make the Emirati city safer and stop any possible threats from unmanned aerial systems. Dubai Police and Rafael agreed to install Drone Dome for the Dubai Police's air defense needs.

Major General Mohammed Nasser Al Razzoqi , Director of the General Department of Operations at Dubai Police said in a statement that  "At Dubai Police, we recognize the importance of staying ahead of emerging threats and utilizing cutting-edge technologies to enhance the safety and security of our community. Our collaboration with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. is a testament to our commitment to addressing regional UAS [Unmanned Aerial Systems]challenges and safeguarding valued assets. Together, we are leveraging the power of multiple technologies and systems to strengthen our security and safety capabilities."

Brig. Gen. (res.) Shachar Shohat, Vice President of Strategy and Business Development, Air and Missile Defense Division at Rafael – who is also a senior research advisor at the MirYam Institute –, said, "We are proud to be standing alongside the Dubai Police and are committed to supporting the efforts to ensure that the regional threats and UAS challenges are met with the most advanced solutions. This cooperation is a step towards advancing defense capabilities and utilizing systems that have proven themselves effective in protecting an array of valued assets."

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Monthly Brief, Judicial Reform Divides Israeli Public

By Yaakov Lappin

The Israeli people and the country’s political system faced a level of division and polarization many observers were calling unprecedented on February 21, after the government led by the Likud and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voted to approve the first reading of a judicial overhaul package introduced by Justice Minister Yariv Levin.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators arrived in Jerusalem on February 20 to protest the bills, and over 130,000 protesters amassed in Tel Aviv on February 19 to express their opposition.

President Isaac Herzog said swaths of the country were in "mourning” the day after the Knesset vote, adding that the onus is on the right-wing governing coalition to reach out and negotiate with the opposition. Netanyahu, for his part, described the vote as “a great day and a great night.”

The big question going forward is whether the government and opposition will find a way, in the coming weeks, to water down the draft passed in the first reading in order to reach a compromise based on a formula offered by Herzog earlier in February.  

The legislation aims to amend Basic Law: The Judiciary to cement government control over judicial appointments and revoke the High Court's ability to review Basic Laws. The next planned stage of the overhaul is a judicial override law that would enable a simple Knesset majority to override the Supreme Court if it rules a law as being illegal. 

Iran found to be enriching uranium to highest level to date

Israel’s ongoing domestic political crisis overshadowed dramatic news out of Iran in recent days.  Bloomberg reported on February 20 that the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency is attempting to determine how Iran obtained uranium enriched to 84% purity — the highest level discovered by UN inspectors in the country to date, only 6% below the level of military-grade uranium that is required to produce a nuclear weapon.

It is important to note that according to Israeli military assessments, Iran remains around two years from the construction of a fully functional nuclear warhead, but that enriching to 90% represents a significant and alarming milestone on the path to becoming a nuclear-armed state.

Bloomberg cited two senior diplomats in its report. Iran previously informed the IAEA that its centrifuges were designed to enrich uranium to 60% purity. It has been enriching uranium to the 20% and 60% levels and is believed to have enough uranium, which, if enriched further to 90%, would be sufficient for four to five nuclear bombs.

The development comes a month after the United States Military and the Israel Defense Forces held a large-scale joint war drill that practiced scenarios of combat against an enemy that closely resembled Iran.

New level of Israeli – Emirati defense cooperation unveiled

As the shadow of Iran’s threatening activities continues to fall on Israel and Gulf Arab Sunni states, Israeli and Emirati companies unveiled on February 20 a jointly developed unmanned sea vessel in Abu Dhabi, in what is being described as a historic first. The system was unveiled at the biennial IDEX exhibition, which is attracting over 1,300 companies from 65 countries for the Middle East's largest defense conference.

State-owned Israeli Aerospace Industries, the Edge Group – a consortium of 25 Emirati defense companies –  and the Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB) shipyard unveiled the vessel at the IDEX naval exhibition.

According to an IAI statement, the jointly produced autonomous vessel is outfitted with sensors, sonar, and imaging systems that are integrated into a remotely operated unified command and control system that does not require human intervention.

While ADSB designed the platform and is integrating the on-board sensors and control systems, IAI is designing the autonomous control system and the variety of dedicated sensors.

The unmanned sea vessel can be used for Intelligence gathering, tracking, observation, border and coastal surveillance, mine detection, submarine detection, anti-submarine warfare, and the deployment of drones.

The move represents another step toward the formation of an Israeli-Gulf-Sunni-Arab bloc committed to mutual cooperation, capability sharing, and defense against Iran.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Monthly Brief, Israel reels from deadliest terror attack in over a decade

By Yaakov Lappin

Israelis are reeling from the deadliest terrorist attack experienced by the country since 2011. Armed with a handgun, an East Jerusalem resident opened fire indiscriminately on civilians he randomly encountered outside a synagogue in Jerusalem's Neve Yaakov neighborhood on Friday night (January 27).

Seven innocent civilians were murdered in cold blood, before the terrorist was shot dead by police. A day later, on January 28, a startlingly young terrorist, only 13-years-old, also from East Jerusalem, opened fire on a group of people in the City of David (Silwan) neighborhood, injuring a father and son. The son, an IDF Paratrooper officer on leave, returned fire, injuring the young assailant, despite having sustained severe injuries himself.

These developments occurred days after a large-scale gun battle that erupted in Jenin on Thursday (January 26), in which an Israeli security operation stopped a Palestinian Islamic Jihad cell from carrying out a planned, imminent terror assault on Israeli targets, according to the Israeli military.

Nine Palestinians were killed in a fierce exchange of fire with Israeli forces in broad daylight. Eight of the dead were gunmen, according to Israeli security sources, The daylight timing of the operation is an indication of its urgent necessity, said the IDF, as usually such operations are scheduled for nighttime.

These events have pushed the security situation to the top of the national agenda once again. There is no avoiding the fact that Palestinian society mainstreams and glorifies indiscriminate murder of Israeli civilians, as seen in the widespread celebrations that followed the Jerusalem attack.

When it comes to dealing with unorganized terrorism, the initial government response, as laid out in a series of cabinet actions, appears be a continuation of the previous security policy pursued by the Bennett – Lapid government.

The dilemma of how far to go in the use of force against terrorism is one that every Israeli cabinet faces, no matter which government is in charge. While an iron fist is necessary against terrorists and those who dispatch them, the defense establishment often advises the government to pursue a balancing act, and, where possible, to avoid taking steps that could further inflame the situation. This balancing act includes a recognition of the Israeli interest in avoiding a collapse of the Palestinian Authority and of avoiding harm to the fabric of life among Palestinians who are not involved in terrorism.

Meanwhile, Hamas maintains its usual double game, inciting terrorism through its official channels and social media presence and promoting atrocities against Israeli in Jerusalem and the West Bank, while maintaining the truce and advancing an economic improvement plan in Gaza. How long will Israel allow Hamas to play this double game? This is one of the questions that the new government will have to answer.

Intriguing developments in Iran

On Saturday night, reports began arriving from Iran regarding a suicide drone strike on a weapons production center in the Iranian city of Isfahan. There were contrasting accounts of who was responsible. According to the Saudi Al-Hadath newspaper, the United States and a second, undisclosed country – not Israel according to the Saudi account – hit a ballistic missile storage center in the strike. In contrast, The Wall Street Journal claimed Israel was behind the attack, and the picture remains far from clear.

The WSJ carries the more credible account, but it is also possible to believe that the U.S. supported or even assisted in the strike.

There has been an increase in attacks by the Iranian-led axis against American military posts in Syria. Suicide UAV and rocket attacks targeted American bases in Syria in January. In addition, given Iran's major role in becoming Russia's primary long-range weapon supplier in Moscow’s war on Ukraine, the U.S. has good reason to want to see Iran’s weapons production and storage centers disrupted.

Iran's choice to equip Russia with suicide UAVs, and, potentially, ballistic missiles in the near future, has internationalized and created linkages between combat zones in Europe and the Middle East. This development generates new risks, but also creates opportunities.

Iran is expanding its weapons supply network far beyond the borders of the Middle East, a disturbing development. Yet Israel could, as a result, find it easier to recruit new powerful partners in the campaign to interfere with and disrupt Iran’s destabilizing weapons production and smuggling network.

The long-term struggle over Israel’s character rages

Despite the security agenda's dominance in recent days, tens of thousands of Israelis demonstrated against the government’s plans for far-reaching judicial reform on Saturday evening in Tel Aviv and other cities. While the turnout was lower than rallies last week, the fact that tens of thousands attended (and observed a minute of silence in honor of the victims of terrorism) shows that the Israeli opposition movement is firm in its resolve to continue protest activities - despite the security escalation.

According to police estimates, some 40,000 people arrived in Tel Aviv for the demonstration there, down from 100,000 who attended in the previous week. Around 13,000 demonstrators participated in a parallel rally in Haifa. These protests reflect fact that the long-term domestic struggle over the nature and character of the Jewish state, as well as the bitter dispute over the balance of power between the executive, the judiciary, and the legislature, will remain in place for years to come. A fundamental question is whether the two major camps in Israeli society - the pro and anti-Netanyahu camps - will reach any kind of compromise on these deeply conflicting visions of Israel’s future.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Monthly Israel Brief

By Yaakov Lappin

Israel’s political system and its public remain deeply divided as the designated right-wing coalition headed by Benjamin Netanyahu headed into the final stretch of difficult negotiations between the majority Likud party and its future partners in government.

The negotiations contain multiple signs that the incoming government will break from the status quo that has defined decades of Israeli politics in terms of its determination to redefine the balance of power between the government, the legislative branch (Knesset), and the judiciary in unprecedented ways – and giving unprecedented powers to government.

On December 19, the avalanche of legislative reform planned by the coalition took the form of a bill brought to vote in the Knesset plenum after clearing a special Knesset committee. The law is designed to remove authority from the Israel Police Inspector General and place it in the hands of designated National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, head of the Jewish Strength party.

These powers include the ability to set direct, specific policing policies, make decisions on investigations and on budgetary matters which have direct consequences of police prioritization. Ben Gvir claims that his version of the bill includes compromises with its critics, since it includes a commitment to consult with the Attorney General about such decisions. While it does include a clause giving Ben Gvir power to make decisions about prosecutions, the latest version of the bill states that this will be done in consultation with the Attorney General and the police chief.

During the committee meeting, Ben Gvir clashed with Deputy Attorney General Gil Limon, who stated that the bill is “unbalanced.” Limon said that in a democratic state the authorities in question have dramatic consequences on issues such as freedom of protest and handling investigation files. Limon warned that great caution is needed when passing reforms in such areas and that the professional echelon should receive an influential role. “This process is too fast for such a complex issue,” Limon cautioned, adding that there are too many vague statements in the bill that leave much room for interpretation.

Such reforms join other changes being instigated by the incoming government, such as giving designated Finance Minister and Religious Zionism party head Bezalel Smotrich powers over the IDF Civil Administration’s policies in the West Bank, and inventing a new position for the far-right designated deputy minister Avi Maoz over extracurricular educational programs – a move that triggered a wave of commitments by secular Israeli municipalities to disregard Maoz’s authority and decisions.

West Bank warning lights are blinking red

Meanwhile, as political instability and tensions mount domestically, the security situation in the West Bank has deteriorated significantly over the past year.

On Sunday, Israeli security forces arrested a 47-year-old suspected Palestinian gunman for conducting a drive-by shooting attack on an Israeli vehicle north of Ariel. According to MirYam Institute senior research associate Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan Dangot, who is former head of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories Unit, the fact that a growing number of terrorists over 40 are getting involved in violence, and that some have ties to Fatah, is a warning signal.

“A growing number of Fatah or Tanzim (a faction of Fatah) members are joining the cycle of terrorism – warning signs of an escalation and the shift to an intifada of terrorism,” Dangot tweeted.

Figures possessed by the IDF back up this warning. In the past year, there has been a major increase in the number of terror attacks in the West Bank and Israel – nearly 300 such attacks - compared to 91 in all of 2021.

The IDF’s Operation Break the Wave launched on March 31 2022 in response to a spate of murderous terror attacks in Israeli cities has foiled hundreds of terror plots and quashed localized terror groups in the northern West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority has lost its ability to govern.

But the ongoing operation has not diminished the motivation of Palestinians to join the violence – a sign of trouble up ahead in the coming year. The volatile situation in the West Bank and in Jerusalem, the potential of the Temple Mount to ignite new violence, the ongoing attempts and incitement by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and others to add fuel to the fire, and future potential decisions by the new government could all see delicate attempts by the Israeli defense establishment to prevent a new intifada fall by the wayside. These attempts include promoting economic prosperity among Palestinians and granting them work visas – 150,000 Palestinians from the West Bank (representing 30% of the PA’s GDP in their earnings) and 17,000 Gazans have received such permits.

Since January 2022, 32 Israeli civilians and members of the security forces were killed in Palestinian attacks, and some 160 Palestinians, most of them armed terrorists and combatants, were killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank. A further 50 Palestinians were killed in Gaza during Operation Breaking Dawn, half of whom have been identified by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center as terrorists.

Israel to become first Western state to have aerial drone medical supply network

In late November, Israeli aero-logistics firm Gadfin and the Netanya-based Sarel medical purchasing and logistics company made history, when they announced that Israel will become the first Western country to receive a working drone medical delivery network linking all major hospitals.

The Rehovot-based Gadfin company will deploy its Spirit One unmanned aerial vehicle that takes off and lands vertically, and folds out its wings to fly like a plane after using rotors to take off. 

Scenes that not long ago would have been considered science fiction will shortly become reality as the drone network picks up critical deliveries from Sarel’s logistics center in Netanya to fly them to Israeli hospitals within a 200-kilometer range.

“This will make Israel the first Western country in the world to have an automatic, on-demand medical delivery aerial grid,” the companies said in a joint statement. The drones will transport medicines, medical equipment, blood, serum, lab samples, vaccines and more in frozen containers when necessary, saving critical time and lives.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

MirYam's Analyst: Monthly Israel Brief

By Yaakov Lappin

After Israel’s right-wing parties came down from the euphoria of breaking a three-and-a-half-year political deadlock and decisively defeating a largely center and left bloc in the November 1 national elections, political hangover quickly set in.

The Likud party, the largest in the new Israeli Knesset, has been working to get agreements in place with its ultra-Orthodox political allies, but it has publicly struggled to reach compromise with members of the ultra-nationalist Religious Zionist list.  

On Monday, November 21, Israel Hayom reported that the ongoing impasse between Likud, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Religious Zionist list, headed by Bezalel Smotrich, had reached crisis point. One major issue of contention is Smotrich’s desire to gain influence and power over Israel’s policies in the West Bank (known in Israel as Judea and Samaria), and the Likud’s unwillingness for that to happen.

Smotrich has demanded the post of defense minister, a demand reportedly rebuffed by Netanyahu, who is facing significant pressure from the Biden administration in the United States not to appoint a far-right figure to the position. Israeli – American defense cooperation is extensive. Israel receives 3.8 billion dollars in American military assistance funds per year, much of which is spent on essential military equipment. The U.S. will send Israel 1 billion dollars for critical Iron Dome interceptors, and American banks loaned Israel some 2.6 billion dollars last year to fast-track the purchase of F-35 fighter jets, F-15 fighters, refueling aircraft, and transport helicopters under a government-to-government agreement.

The United States uses its veto at the United Nations Security Council to provide essential diplomatic cover for Israel against hostile motions that threaten to become binding motions if passed, thereby helping Israel avoid becoming an isolated state as it defends itself against a myriad of threats.

It is for these reasons – and more – that Netanyahu has so far been unwilling to allow Smotrich to become defense minister. Washington would almost certainly boycott Smotrich, and possibly take additional action, leading to severe damage to Israel’s security and political interests.

According to Hebrew media reports, Netanyahu has instead offered Smotrich the position of finance minister, but the Religious Zionist leader has demanded that any such compromise include provisions that would enable him to boost Israeli settlement building in the territories.

According to Israel Hayom, Netanyahu “rebuffed the Religious Zionist Party's request and said that Israel would have to show restraint on settlement issues for the next two years because of the changes in the U.S. political landscape.” Smotrich for his part has called on Netanyahu not to allocate such a high degree of importance to the Biden administration’s stance on settlements.

Reported agreement on police powers has senior officers up in arms

Fellow ultra-nationalist Itamar Ben Gvir, who heads the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength) party, which ran with the Religious Zionists in a technical bloc in the elections, looks likely to have his demands met to be appointed public security minister in charge of the police. But his call to receive powers currently reserved for the police commissioner, such as choosing how to deploy forces on the ground has been met with severe criticism by senior police brass, according to a report by Ynet.

“The significance of Ben Gvir’s demands would be that the commissioner would become a ministerial assistant. The commissioner’s authority must be safeguarded alongside that of the public security minister, to preserve democracy, which is today expressed through absolute separation [of powers],” said a senior police source. 

Miryam Institute research fellow and former Israel Police Deputy Commissioner Alon Levavi has outlined some of the police’s sensitive powers in a recent paper.

Israel’s campaign against Iran continues without cessation

Away from politics, Israel’s defense establishment continues to disrupt Iranian entrenchment in Syria.

According to Syrian state media, an Israeli missile strike on the Shayrat Airbase in Syria's Homs Province killed two members of the Syrian armed forces and injured three others on November 13.

Reuters said the strikes targeted "a runway in the sprawling air base," noting that the base was recently used by the Iranian air force.

Additionally, the Alma Center, an Israeli research organization specializing in security challenges on Israel's northern borders, said a truck convoy carrying Hezbollah weapons may have also been targeted.

This report is a reminder of the routine Israeli activity designed to stop Iran from building a war machine in Syria to target Israel in a future conflict, as Iran has been able to do in neighboring Lebanon with Hezbollah.

Earlier in November, a convoy believed to be smuggling Iranian weapons from Iraq into Syria was hit by airstrikes in eastern Syria near the town of Abu Kamal, a Syrian border town often used as a transit point by the Iranians for weapons deliveries.

The strikes reportedly destroyed several vehicles and killed at least ten people, including an unknown number of Iranians.

The objective of preventing Iran’s entrenchment efforts in Syria is being pursued by the defense establishment without connection to the turbulent political situation.

A first in the West: National drone supply network for medical logistics

This month, Israeli aero-logistics company Gadfin signed a historic contract with the SAREL medical group, a purchasing organization and logistics company. Under the terms of the contract, Israeli hospitals requiring urgent medical supplies, including blood units, will receive them via Gadfin’s autonomous, folding-wing, vertical take-off and landing drone.

The logistics grid will gradually connect all of Israel’s major hospitals within a radius of 200 kilometers, according to the plan, making it the first network of its kind in the West.

“This will make Israel the first western country in the world to have an automatic, on demand, medical delivery aerial grid. This contract will allow SAREL to have constant supply of medical equipment, medicines, vaccines, blood, serum, lab samples, and more… at less than one hour from call,” Gadfin and SAREL said in a joint statement.

Gadfin’s Spirit One air vehicle runs on hydrogen fuel cells, and, within three years, 18 of these systems will be used to fly up to 60 deliveries per day, or 21,000 a year.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.

Israel isn’t just counting on Lebanon deal to secure gas rigs

By Yaakov Lappin

In the coming days, Israel and Lebanon are expected to sign a U.S.-mediated agreement that regulates their maritime border, and respective rights to extract natural gas reserves from under the Mediterranean Sea.

The agreement has attracted intense debate in Israel over its advantages or disadvantages – of which it has both. It carries strategic value, in enabling Israel to immediately begin accessing profitable gas resources and de-escalating tensions with Hezbollah, which has threatened to attack the Israeli Karish offshore gas rig off the northern Israeli coast if Jerusalem begins gas extraction before a deal is reached.

But it also strengthens Hezbollah’s ability to market itself inside Lebanon, and particularly to its Shi’ite Lebanese base, as ‘protector’ of Lebanon’s interests, and as a violent entity that is able to use the threat of its missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles to force Israel into an agreement, under terms and at a pace that would not have otherwise happened.

Whichever way one may view the deal, it is important to note that over the past several years, the Israeli defense establishment has invested heavily in cutting edge military technology in order to defend Israel’s offshore rigs. And that Israel is far from relying only an agreement with a state like Lebanon, whose actual sovereignty is very much in doubt due to the dominance of Hezbollah and Iran in it, in order to protect its strategic maritime energy assets that are a major source of national income and have become all the more important in view of recent export deals to the European Union, which is looking for alternatives to Russian gas sources.

The most significant step that Israel took to protect its strategic new energy assets took shape in December 2020, when INS Magen (Defender), the first of Israel’s new Sa’ar 6 corvettes, arrived at Haifa Naval Base.  The second ship in the Sa’ar 6 series, the INS Oz (Strength), arrived in June 2021, while the INS Nitzhahon (Victory) and Atzmaut (Independence) arrived in July of that year.

Built by German shipyard builders  ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems in close cooperation with Israel Navy engineers and planners, the ships are fitted with Israeli-made weapons that include the Rafael-made C-Dome air defense system – the sea version of Iron Dome, and the Israel Aerospace Industries-made Barak 8 air and missile defense system.

The C-Dome will be designed to intercept a range of threats, including rockets, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles – of the type that that Hezbollah is in possession of, while the Barak system can take on longer-range threats such as  supersonic anti-ship missiles –another weapons system reportedly in Hezbollah’s arsenal.

The ships have on-board electronic warfare systems, which could be used to jam the guidance systems of incoming threats. They also come with advanced multi-mission radars made by IAI-Elta, and command-and-control systems; they can detect, track, and intercept threats from over 200 kilometers away.

Also taking part in the defensive effort are the Israel Navy’s older Sa’ar 5 missile vessels, like the INS Eilat, which shot down Hezbollah unmanned aerial vehicles that the Iranian-backed terror organization launched toward Israel’s Karish platform on July 2, as a warning message.

But it is the Sa’ar 6s that are the designated offshore gas defenders, protecting rigs that can be targeted by both Hezbollah from Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

According to media reports, Hezbollah is in possession of the Russian-made Yakhont supersonic cruise missile, which has a range of up to 300 kilometers, which it is believed to have obtained from the Syrian military.

Hezbollah is consistently trying to obtain and develop other land-to-sea missiles and rockets. In 2006, during the Second Lebanon War, it fired a C-802 Chinese designed anti-ship missile, striking the INS Hanit and killing four sailors. It was the first time that an Israeli ship was hit by a shore-to-sea missile, and represented a painful wake up call for Israel’s Navy.

Today, Hezbollah is likely in possession of more advanced threats, meaning that powerful radars are vital in detecting them.

As a navy source stated in 2020, "The issue with gas rigs is that it only takes one hit to achieve the potential damage that you want. As a navy, we cannot allow any missiles, ballistic threats, cruise missiles, or UAVs to get through us and strike any gas rig. It's like building an iron wall."

The Sa’ar 6s will patrol Israel’s economic exclusive zones. They can stay out at sea longer than their predecessors, and cover longer distances.

It seems fair to assume that the rigs also have underwater sonar systems installed on them, to sound alerts against Hezbollah divers. Naval threats are also developing to the south, where Hamas is trying to build ‘sea tunnels’ that enable its commando diver forces to head out to sea, or to launch mini unmanned submerged explosive vehicles without being noticed. There too, Israel is building a network of sensors and obstacles to prevent this from happening.

Unmanned sea vessels such as the Elbit-made Seagull which can patrol autonomously and detect threats using sensors and fire weapons will also play a key role in protecting rigs.

In any future conflict, the Israel Navy will also take on offensive duties, striking enemy targets on land with its firepower.

The navy’s new role in protecting Israeli national assets at sea, both during routine times and in times of  war, is a new strategic responsibility  and compels it to cover distances that are larger than any it has defended in the past.

Taken together, these developments collectively create a new Israeli naval doctrine, based on recognition that Israel’s economy flows through the sea.

It’s not only the gas – Israel is often compared to an island, despite not technically being one. Its longest border is with the sea. Half of Israel’s fresh water comes from the sea via desalination plants, the communication cables that run under the sea connect it to the world, 70% of Israel’s electrical consumption comes from gas rigs out at sea, and 90% of Israel’s wheat is imported via the sea, as are vehicles and most raw materials.

Israel must be able to protect its waters if it is to protect its basic ability to function. As Israel’s enemies conduct an arms race to attack the country’s sea assets, the Israeli Navy has fashioned an entire new strategy to counteract the threat and stay a step ahead.

---

Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He provides insight and analysis for a number of media outlets, including Jane's Defense Weekly, a leading global military affairs magazine, and JNS.org, a news agency with wide distribution among Jewish communities in the U.S. Read full bio here.